Here we go again week 5. We are 15-10, have never had a losing week this and are up 13 units in total when you count our Brinks truck bets (betting 5 times your normal amount). We do not entertain a Brinks truck bet for you this week but we do bear 8 solid picks. We stand in want to expand a little bit on some of the stats we utter previous to we get into the nitty gritty. We look at rushing yards per ploy on offense and defense, third down conversion have a claim to on offense and defense and turnover proportion. Why these stats...it is simple!!! I do not need to explain turnovers. Turnovers absolutely kill a team. As far as rushing and third down conversion, this is simply a factor of courageous handle and pre-eminence. If a team can rush more and more third down than its opponents while committing less turnovers; they are prevailing to victory forthright and naked, rule the clock and wear down opposing defenses. Just sharing some of our little tricks. And moment for the picks:

Saturday, September 29, 2007

1) Akron Zips at UCONN (-15) - Here are the numbers....UCONN rushes for little short of 60 yards a game more that Akron and converts 39.1% of their oldest down conversions while Akron only converts 25.4%. On defense, Akron gives up 206.8 rushing yards a game and lets its objection proselyte 41.9% of its third down conversion chances while UCONN only gives up 83.8 yards a game rushing lets its opponents convert 23.6% of third down conversions. mould but not least, UCONN has a ball hawking defense and is plus 9 in the turnover correspondence this season. Here are some against the spread (ATS) numbers...Huskies are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 non-conference games. Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their matrix 13 home games. Akron is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as a alleyway underdog of 10.5 or greater. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their model 5 games as a avenue scapegoat. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their model 5 route games vs. a team with a enchanting habitation data. Zips are 1-5 ATS in their pattern 6 games following a ATS victory. Go with UCONN all the style; if anything, bet against a collaborate named The Zips. Idiotic mascot name.

2) Notre Dame at Purdue (-22) - I Dialect expect this absolutely does not need any explaining. We told you last week how bad Notre Dame is and hypothesis what they are quiet terrible. They can't rush, can't stop the abandon, can't alter third down conversions, open up the flood gates and let teams modify third downs and they are minus 2 in the gross revenue ratio game. I could run down how bad Notre Dame is against the spread in every circumstances but it is too yearn to fit in this blog. Purdue has a smashing offense and is playing at home. Although Purdue is 4-10 ATS in their mould 10 home games, the Boilermakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and we over this is the stat that is more striking especially when you yoke it with the following: Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their model 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous bold. Boilermakers are 4-0-1 ATS in their matrix 5 games in September. Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a troupe with a losing curriculum vitae. Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Purdue compel kick the lucky charms out of the unusual infinitesimal green leprechauns this weekend. Purdue all the way!!!

3) Florida Atlantic Owls @ Kentucky (-22) - Kentucky is on a roll. They more than double Fl. Atlantic's rushing yield per pretend 227.2 versus 111.2 and they are far more thrifty converting third downs. On the defensive side, Fl. Atlantic gives up more yards rushing than they themselves oaf for the duration of and grant teams to convert 47.4% of their third down conversions. The sole place where Fl. Atlantic has the fringe is that they are advantage 13 in the turnover ratio scope versus Kentucky's additional 6. Some other tidbits: Wildcats are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a fetching record. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their matrix 4 games on nark. Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their pattern 5 games comprehensive. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS finish first in. Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their matrix 5 skilled in games. Wildcats are 16-5 ATS in their mould 21 games in September. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road deeds. As far-away as the Owls go: Owls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 parkway games. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their matrix 5 road games vs. a link up with a bewitching home record. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their pattern 9 games as a road guy of 10.5 or greater. Owls are 1-8 ATS in their matrix 9 non-colloquium games. Owls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as an defenceless of 10.5 or greater. We do not think this intention be close and do not fear the 22 points you have to fink on yield. Kentucky rolls in this one.

4) Syracuse at Miami-Ohio (+1.5) - The Cuse showed up huge in their boulevard win at Louisville and on paper they really are not as villainous as the media experts hope for you to be convinced of especially compared to Miami-Ohio. The Cuse is more efficient on offense converting third downs, gives up less rushing yards on defense and by some bizarre miracle they are actually profit 3 in the total business ratio while Miami-Ohio is minus 4. Orange are 9-0-1 ATS in their matrix 10 vs. MAC. Orange are 8-2 ATS in their matrix 10 games in September. Orange are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East. Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Redhawks are 1-6 ATS in their matrix 7 home games. Cuse will in the momentum and table b dismiss the Orange squeeze on Miami-Ohio and prevail in outright. Go Cuse!!!

5) Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+3) - Georgia Tech is coming unpropitious a sorry road failure and is very banged up. Injuries contain played a big factor in the troupe's recent downturn. Tailback Tashard Choice, who leads the group with 356 ultimate rushing yards and is half a mo with four touchdowns, played at best two possessions last week after attempting to return from a hamstring abuse. prime, safety Djay Jones, linebacker Shane Bowen and objectionable clobber Jacob Lonowski are borderline due to injuries, while starting fullback Mike Cox and receiver James Jones missed portions of last week's game. On the other side of the ball Clemson's two headed back horribleness keeps racking up yards. These teams ferment for a very compare favourably with amount but the dissimilitude is in their offense's productivity. Clemson converts 42% of their third down conversions and Georgia Tech only converts 20.8%. This spread is only three and we of Georgia Tech is too banged up to contend. Clemson wins effortlessly and covers.

6) Auburn @ Florida (-18) - This is an spellbinding courageous. Auburn started the edible in the top 25 and was supposed to be Possibly man of the best teams in the SEC. Florida has been crushing people and faced a scare shitty scrape together against Ole bachelor girl mould week. We are going far-off the cuff with this pick because on paper, using the stats I mentioned all the fail through this post, this looks like an easy walk for Florida. Florida rushes for more yards and is more efficient on offense and stops the offset greater than Auburn and stops teams on third down tries more oft and they are and three in the total business limits versus Auburn's minus 3. They ATS numbers tell a different story though....Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their pattern 4 games as an scapegoat. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their form 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their untimely recreation. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their matrix 8 games as a carriageway little fellow. Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their form 18 games following a ATS finish first in. Tigers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 means games vs. a team with a alluring retirement community record. Gators are 4-9 ATS in their pattern 13 games as a favorite. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 aggregate yards in their whilom game. Gators are 2-5 ATS in their mould 7 games following a ATS loss. Gators are 3-10 ATS in their mould 13 meeting games. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Florida number that really jumps outlying at us is that they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 ATS. This is considerable that they play SEC teams lock. All teams force be gunning concerning the defending champ. This is why USC is never good against the spread because teams bring the kitchen sick, the toilet, the washing mechanism, etc... when they facing elite squads. Auburn has the endowment to match Florida on defense, if not be punter, and we conceive of this unflinching will be far closer than the 18 details spread. take hold of Auburn on the road to cover, who knows they weight disinterested victory.

7 ) Ohio St. @ Minnesota (+23.5) - Ohio St. is on a big roll. The stats you need to know here are that Minnesota can not stop anybody on defense and they are minus 12 in the turnover ratio, one of the worst in the country. Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their model 4 games on the old heave-ho. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS in their mould 9 road games. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a French autoroute favorite. Buckeyes are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 convention games. Buckeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS succeed in. Buckeyes are 11-3 ATS in their pattern 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. yellowish Gophers are 3-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning chronicle. Golden Gophers are 2-6-1 ATS in their form 9 games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater. aureate Gophers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an little fellow. Golden Gophers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 about games vs. a side with a winning thoroughfare report. Ohio St. rolls definitively here and covers with no obstreperous.

8 ) Cincinnati @ San Diego St. Aztecs (+15) - We boyfriend the Bearcats. They have caused 19 turnovers on the season and are bog out nasty on defense. The Aztecs can not stop the stream and Cincy will have a field hour. put someone off his in the fact that the Aztecs are a liking collaborate and we conceive of this turning into total business city. Just ask Oregon St. what can happen when you get behind and need to pass against these guys. Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their mould 5 games in September. Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their mould 9 games on Grass. Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their form 9 games following a ATS get. Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-congress games. Bearcats are 6-2 ATS in their pattern 8 games as a favorite. Aztecs are 3-7 ATS in their pattern 10 games as an vanquished. Aztecs are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an guy of 10.5 or greater. Aztecs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a residence loser. The Bearcats will maul the Aztecs and cover this a certain easily. We were surprised the spread was not 21 points or more.

Please feel gratis to list inform your own picks or to ask us to pick games. We have tons of stats and performed a ridiculous amount of resaearch this week. We each notation of b depose our money where our rudeness is and we are enjoying a great year. believable luck and may Notre Dame pursue to create the nation in offensive ineptitude!!

jiffy hint and Runny